Blackjack Dealer Bust Rates

Most people know blackjack myths but I prefer to look at blackjack facts. You know, the stuff that actually happens and not stuff that people think is true but isn’t.

One of the biggest myths is to always assume that the dealer always has a 10 in the hole. That’s only true around 30% of the time (16 tens per 52 card deck). Here’s a fact about dealer hands. According to math provided by Blackjack Age the dealer busts more than 28% of the time.

The dealer has an average bust rate of 28.36% on any given hand and, as you can see, based on this chart, 4, 5, and 6 are the dealer’s biggest bust cards. However, how do you know whether or not you should hit or stand and hope for the dealer to bust in a given situation? Your best bet is to take your own bust-out rates into consideration and then stand only when your chances of busting are greater than the dealer’s chances.

Here’s a chart with the dealer bust rate based on the card they have showing.

Looking at this chart you can see the math behind why a blackjack dealer is more likely to bust when they have a “bust card”. The dealer is almost twice as likely to bust when they have a 2 through 6.

This also show that a common phrase heard at blackjack tables, “a 2 is the dealer’s ace“, is not even close to being true as the two bust 3 times as often as an ace. Chalk that up as another myth.

I practice blackjack strategy and counting with the ODDcase app for iPhone. It’s the best blackjack app around and the full version is only $1.99.

Photo Elmo’s World Trip