Are You Ready For Some Football?

It’s definitely football season as Denver Gambler and JMP had no idea that each other had football posts going today. Meanwhile, I’ve been passing on a few football previews a day at Free Picks and Fun. Clearly, we’re all ready. Is Tim Tebow?

Now that we have football back, sportsbooks and sports gamblers alike don’t have to sweat what to do all fall. One of the fun parts about football games (even on national networks) is discussing the betting spread and who will win against it. So in honor of training camps opening, and before we know too much from preseason, let’s talk about some of the odds out there. All odds are from sportsbook.com. (ED: Compare with Bodog, who is still taking new US accounts)

To win the Super Bowl:
Detroit Lions – 20:1
Indianapolis Colts – 10:1

The Detroit Lions are the quintessential overrated for being underrated team. 20:1 odds for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the 90s and has a QB with injury problems is absurd. The Colts, at 10:1, though are interesting. Even with Manning hurt, I’d rather take 10:1 odds on him than 20:1 on Detroit and Stafford. In case you were wondering, the favorite is a 3-way tie between New England, Green Bay, and Philadelphia at 6:1 (ED: Philly was 12-1 before signing Aso). Buffalo and Carolina are tied for the least favorite at 150:1.

Week 1:
Chargers -8.5 at home against MIN
Patriots -4.5 at Miami
Falcons -2.5 at Bears

The Chargers -8.5 at home against Minnesota seems really really high. The Chargers historically always start weak and Minnesota could have something to prove in the post Brett Favre era. I would like this spread at 5 or 6, but 8.5 seems ridiculous. The same goes with the Falcons. I don’t think that Atlanta on the Road in Chicago should be giving any points. And that’s from a Broncos fan who hates Jay Cutler. But Chicago can hang with Atlanta and should have the edge at home. The Patriots at Dolphins should be interesting, but I like Brady to win by more than 4.5 over Henne, no matter where the game is played.

AFC Champions:
Jets – 11:2
Texans 15:1
Colts – 13:2

The obvious teams to win the AFC are the Patriots and the Steelers. But these aren’t great bets. I find the Jets and Colts interesting at those odds. That being said, I think I’d take the Colts at the higher odds. I know teams win championships, but give me Peyton Manning over Mark Sanchez (ED: BOO!)any day. The Texans at 15:1 are an interesting dark horse (ED: No they’re not) with a lot of talent, but not enough for me to stake money on.

My team, the Broncos, are very interesting throughout this analysis. As a team that was bad enough to get the 2nd overall pick, they have the same odds of winning the Super Bowl as Jacksonville and Tennessee. Neither are great teams, but it’s surprising that they would have better odds than Washington or Cincinnati. Either way, I’m not betting on my team, but I like those bets above. So watch the odds, see what happens in pre-season, and strike when the odds go in your favor. Sports betting is about timing and getting the right spread for your bet.

If you want the real Tim Tebow jersey…