2017 Odds To Win College Football Championship From William Hill.
You probably know that I love craps. It’s my favorite casino game. Craps also happens to have some of the best odds in the casino if you make the right bets. Unfortunately for most gamblers the craps table is littered with bad bets so I want to let you know (or remind you) about two craps bets to avoid.
Two of the silliest bad bets on the craps table are the Big 6 and Big 8 bets. These bets each pay even money ($5 wins $5, $10 wins $10, $25 wins $25, etc.) if someone rolls a 6 or 8, respectively. This bet has a house advantage of 9% for the casino.
A couple of inches away you can “place” the 6 or 8 and get paid $7 for every $6 bet if someone rolls either number. This bet has a house advantage of 1.5% for the casino.
You probably won’t see many people betting the Big 6 or the Big 8 the next time you’re at a craps table and this is why. If you’re new to craps these are two bets to avoid. You might as well place the 6 or 8 if those bets pay you better.
Making this smart bet at the craps table doesn’t take any effort or take away any fun (it’s fun to yell “gimme a hard 8”) so hit some good numbers, get paid and have fun!
Photo: Total Rewards Blog
I’m always looking for a late season World Series bet with value. A couple of years ago I made a late season bet on the Phillies at 1000-1. It was one of the most fun bets I ever made. It doesn’t look like that kind of crazy long shot opportunity will be available this year.
Any teams stand out as a value? Here are the current mathematical odds from Baseball Prospectus on teams making the playoffs if you need.
5001 DODGERS – 4 / 1
5002 RED SOX – 150 / 1
5003 CARDINALS – 15/1
5004 ATHLETICS – 7/ 2
5005 TIGERS – 9/ 2
5006 BRAVES – 25 / 1
5007 NATIONALS – 10/1
5008 TB RAYS – 30/1
5009 GIANTS – 10 / 1
5010 PIRATES – 18 / 1
5011 REDS – 25 / 1
5012 YANKEES – 22 / 1
5013 ANGELS – 8 / 1
5014 RANGERS – 2500 / 1
5015 INDIANS – 60 / 1
5016 ORIOLES – 12 / 1
5017 PHILLIES – 1000 / 1
5018 D’BACKS – 1000 / 1
5019 BLUE JAYS – 25/ 1
5020 ROYALS – 40 / 1
5021 PADRES – 250 / 1
5022 ROCKIES – 2500/ 1
5023 BREWERS – 6/1
5024 WHITE SOX – 200/1
5025 MARINERS – 22/1
5026 CUBS – 2500/ 1
5027 METS – 250/ 1
5028 TWINS – 1000/ 1
5029 MARLINS – 60/ 1
5030 ASTROS – 1000 / 1
Craps is my favorite game in the casino. If there was only one game in a casino that I had to talk about it would be craps.
The most recent “You Can Bet On That” podcast (July 3) talks a lot about craps odds and strategy. You can stream or download for iTunes for free. Links are below.
As the year ended I looked at the best craps in downtown Las Vegas and didn’t find anything to surprising. Main Street Station has the best odds for a craps game downtown. It’s also the most affordable with 20x odds on $5 bets.
Most gaming on the Vegas Strip is worse than those offered in downtown Vegas but that’s not entirely true when it comes to dice. Craps on the Vegas strip is almost the same at every casino but there are a few locations that stand out being better than the rest. Here’s the breakdown.
100x– Casino Royale – looks like this is now 20x.
- 10x – Riviera, Stratosphere
- 3-4-5x – Aria, Bally’s, Bellagio, Caesars Palace, Cosmopolitan, Encore, Excalibur, Flamingo, Harrah’s, The Quad, Luxor, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand, Mirage, Monte Carlo, New York New York, Palazzo, Paris, Planet Hollywood, Treasure Island, Tropicana, Venetian
- 2x – Circus Circus
Casino Royale has had 100x odds for years and even though Riviera tried 1000x craps odds for a while that’s gone and Casino Royale returns as the best craps game on the Vegas strip.
I’ve never been in Casino Royale and wouldn’t go just to play craps. 3-4-5 Craps is the norm on the strip and that’s fine. Regardless of the odds craps is still has some of the lowest house edges in the casino. The difference between 3-4-5 and 100x odds is fairly small and not enough to make me go somewhere I don’t want. That said, if Cosmopolitan or somewhere nice had a 100x odds game they would likely find me at the table.
Note: If you know different odds at any of the casinos please leave a comment. The craps survey on Wizard of Odds is about 9 months old.
Photo – flickr jcnikon
I don’t like doing math but I’m curious about the facts when I’m in the casino. Earlier this year I shared some of the Myth’s of Blackjack and earlier this week I added another myth to that list when I found blackjack dealer bust rates.
Now I want to look at the rate that players will bust when playing blackjack. Here’s the breakdown based on hands greater than eleven.
It should come as no surprise that the higher your card total, the greater the odds that you’ll end up with more than 21 if you hit. Blackjack Age offers one piece of advice when it comes to potential players bust hands.
You don’t want to take the chance of busting yourself when the dealer is more likely to bust than you are.
Nice and simple advice.
I practice blackjack strategy and counting with the ODDcase app for iPhone. It’s the best blackjack app around and the full version is only $1.99.
Photo Elmo’s World Trip
We have a guest post today from Steve G who covers gaming topics at Phillygambles.com! We’ve been interacting on twitter for a while and he’s lending some numbers wisdom to a new craps bet that I found at G2E. Without further adieu…
The table was on display by Galaxy Gaming and the new bets were labeled as follows:
- All Small, 34 to 1, 2-3-4-5-6
- All Tall, 34 to 1, 8-9-10-11-12
- All or nothing at All, 175 to 1, 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-12
Marc asked if someone could determine true odds on those bets. That’s not as simple as it might seem because these are not one-roll bets like any craps, or a bet on one result compared to another like a hard 10. The bet is that all the numbers will be rolled before a seven, and that is not as simple to calculate directly.
A game simulation can estimate the odds, though. After 50 million trials, there is a reasonable estimate of the chances.
|Bet||Payout||Estimate Odds||Estimate House Edge|
|All Small||34 to 1||36.9 to 1||7.7%|
|All Tall||34 to 1||36.9 to 1||7.7%|
|All or Nothing at All||175 to 1||188.7 to 1||7.2%|
So these bets have a higher house edge than bets on a single number at the roulette wheel (5.26% for a double-zero wheel) with a similar or higher payout. Certainly other prop bets on the craps table like a hard 6 or hard 8 offer a smaller payout (9-1 payout) with a higher house edge (9.1%).
However, 7.7% is still a lot higher than the house edge on the pass line (1.41%). Gamblers are much better off sticking to front line bets and pressing those bets by taking odds with zero house edge.
That is a grind, though, and this would seem a nice way to take advantage of those hot hands where the shooter rolls number after number before sevening out.
True, but there are other ways to benefit from a hot hand that will cost a lot less over a session an average session of craps. Let’s look at a couple of them.
Many players make place bets at the table. When a point is established, bettors place numbers, looking to get action on numbers other than the point. The 6 and 8 are popular choices, and for good reason. The house edge on those bets is a small 1.52% (provided that the player makes bets in multiples of 6 to get the true payout of 7 to 6). Placing the 5 or 9 cedes a house edge of 4%, while the 4 and 10 give a house edge of 6.67%. Note, however, all those bets have a smaller edge than the Galaxy “All” bets.
So a player could place all the numbers once a point is established, and have most of what the “All” bets have working, for a lower house edge. It would put more money in action, however. Using a multiple of 6 for the 6 and 8, it would be $64 each point for a $10 craps bettor, compared to $30 on the full menu of the Galaxy “All” bets.
Instead of playing the pass line, a $10 craps player could also just place a come bet after a point is established, getting more action in the game. If the bettor keeps placing come bets until a few come points are established, they can have multiple numbers working, and all for the same low house edge as the pass line. As a bonus, odds can be taken on the come bet, just like the pass line.
This is the advice Darwin Ortiz gives for getting more action in his classic book, “Darwin Ortiz On Casino Gambling”. That’s the same book where he gives the odds on the prop bets in craps, but asks the reader not to tell anyone they read his book if they make them. Ortiz thinks of all the prop bets as sucker bets, so despite the kind words to Galaxy on their innovation, you can imagine what Darwin Ortiz thinks of these bets.
Let’s compare how a bettor might do if they follow four different modes of play after every point is established:
- Making all three Galaxy All bets, for $10 each.
- Making all place bets, for $10 each ($12 on the 6 and 8), and taking the number down if it hits
- Making $10 come bets, until there are at the most 4 come points established
- Making those $10 come bets, and pressing them for $10 odds when a come point is established
After another 10M simulations, here are some results:
|Approach||Average Result per 100 trials|
|Galaxy All bets||-282.2|
|Come bets with odds||-59.9|
Quick thoughts. Craps is a negative sum game. All the approaches lose money over time. The Galaxy bets fare the worst. The place bets are close behind. Even though the 6 and 8 offer low house edge, the poor odds in the 4 and 10 are what makes the difference.
The come bets offer a much smaller expected loss. In this case, taking the odds made a small change (and for the positive by a small amount in this run of simulated hands), but since there is zero house edge on the odds bets, the long-term expected loss for come bets with and without the odds should be the same.
The obvious counter to the come-bet approach by a Galaxy All bettor is that while those average losses may be larger for the Galaxy bets, when a hot hand does happen the payoff should be huge compared to what a few come bets could manage. After all, what’s even money on a few numbers compared to 34 to 1? We’re not playing 10 million hands, or even 100. Maybe 20-30 in a couple of hours at the table. If the Galaxy bet hits, that is a great night.
Here are some more figures for those 10 million hands, looking only at those events where one of the Galaxy bets would payoff, and what happens with our approaches:
|All Small Hits||All Tall Hits||All or Nothing at All Hits|
|Come bets with odds||63.3||69.5||113.3|
Quick observations. By definition, All or Nothing At All means all the placed bets hit, so the average payout should be exactly $92, and it is. Also, here should be no difference between place bet outcomes for All Small or All Tall hitting. The bets are symmetric. And that looks to be the case.
In contrast, there should be a difference for the come bets between All Small and All Tall since the 11 is a winner whereas the 3 is a loser. That is seen in the average results.
The Galaxy makes a fair point. Even with odds, the come bet play for a $10 bettor is less than a tenth the payout for the Galaxy bet for a very hot hand. For that one even when it hits, the payout is much larger.
Overall, however, that bettor will spend a lot more at the table in exchange for that one big payout. And in the meantime there are plenty of good, but not “all or nothing” hands where a hot shooter will make a winning session for a come bettor.
Darwin Ortiz has it right. Sharp players should stick to the come bets.
But hats off to Galaxy Gaming. They have come up with a new bet on an established game with a high payout, easy to understand rules, and a house edge attractive to casino management. And also worthy of a long blog post.
Remember yesterday? I do. It was Wednesday. I had coffee and banana bread at Starbucks for breakfast and a salad for lunch and leftovers for dinner. There was also this story about “19 Hits 7 StraightTimes on Roulette at Rio“. I thought there was possibly something fishy going on and there was.
“There was no one playing at that table,”Rio Las Vegas Hotel & Casino spokesman Gary Thompson told The Detroit News on Wednesday. “It was just a diagnostic test being done.”
Nothing really sketchy, just maintenance. I guess we’ll have to wait for that hundred billion to one shots to happen. Oh well, we’ll have to look elsewhere for an Ocean’s 13 moment.
I don’t play much roulette so I haven’t seen anything like this before. The photo above shows the number 19 hitting 7 times in a row and 8 times in 9 spins. Hot damn! What are the odds of that happening? I’m glad you asked.
The website Beyond the Best crunched the numbers and calculated the odds of the 19s hitting seven times in succession as 114 billion to 1.
Obviously, hitting 8 times in 9 spins is even a bigger number. Seeing 20 hit 4 of the 6 previous spins would lead me to think that there’s some shady business here, but nothing has been found just yet.
Contacted this afternoon to ask for verification of the event and if the wheel has since been tested to make sure it is properly balanced and calibrated, Caesars Entertainment officials had not yet learned of the event.
I can be a conspiracy theorist and say that there’s some Ocean’s 13 shadiness going on here, but I just don’t see someone going to Rio to do that. Especially during the World Series of Poker. Then again, maybe that the genius here.
Spring Training is here and it’s time for baseball! This is one of my favorite times of the year. Since I’m so stoked I think it’s time to look forward to the season with MLB futures odds. We’ll look at the futures from sportsbook.com from division winners and then to win the world series. As always, check sportsbook.com for exact odds as they change all the time.
I don’t like to make many futures bets, in part, because I don’t like to have my money tied up for almost an entire year. That being said I decided to make one baseball futures play this year and that’s all. I shared that with you yesterday with the NL Championship futures.
Besides the Brewers, my lone plays for the season is watching as many games as possible and playing in my one fantasy baseball. I don’t think much about the options beyond the favorites (Phillies and Red Sox) for the World Series and betting chalk bores me so I stay away. Click any team below to go to sportsbook.com for up to date odds.
Arizona Diamondbacks +10000
Atlanta Braves +2000
Baltimore Orioles +6000
Boston Red Sox +400
Chicago Cubs +3000
Chicago White Sox +2500
Cincinnati Reds +2500
Cleveland Indians +20000
Colorado Rockies +2500
Detroit Tigers +2500
Florida Marlins +3500
Houston Astros +10000
Kansas City Royals +20000
Los Angeles Angels +2500
Los Angeles Dodgers +3000
Milwaukee Brewers +3000
Minnesota Twins +2000
New York Mets +6000
New York Yankees +700
Oakland Athletics +5000
Philadelphia Phillies +200
Pittsburgh Pirates +20000
San Diego Padres +10000
San Francisco Giants +1500
Seattle Mariners +10000
St Louis Cardinals +1600
Tampa Bay Rays +2500
Texas Rangers +2000
Toronto Blue Jays +6000
Washington Nationals +10000