Baseball Prospectus just released 2016 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections. If you wager on baseball or play fantasy baseball you are probably familiar with the wealth of information available on Baseball Prospectus (BP).
If you’re not familiar with BP or PECOTA I’ll share some information after the standings. If you are familiar with BP and PECOTA you might find these projections helpful when looking at betting MLB season win totals and MLB futures (below).
This is only a snippet of the information from Baseball Prospectus. There are definitely some surprises and projections I don’t understand right now and will have to dig deeper to understand. You can see the full projections Baseball Prospectus.
American League PECOTA Standings Projections
National League PECOTA Standings Projections
What is PECOTA? Here’s some info from Baseball Prospectus.
(PECOTA) Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:
1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player’s true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players’ stats changed over time.
Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system’s intricacies.
For reference here are the opening and current MLB World Series Futures odds from William Hill.