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2016 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections

MLB Logo

MLB Pecota Projections

Baseball Prospectus just released 2016 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections. If you wager on baseball or play fantasy baseball you are probably familiar with the wealth of information available on Baseball Prospectus (BP).

If you’re not familiar with BP or PECOTA I’ll share some information after the standings. If you are familiar with BP and PECOTA you might find these projections helpful when looking at betting MLB season win totals and MLB futures (below).

This is only a snippet of the information from Baseball Prospectus. There are definitely some surprises and projections I don’t understand right now and will have to dig deeper to understand. You can see the full projections Baseball Prospectus.

American League PECOTA Standings Projections

ALPecota

National League PECOTA Standings Projections

NLPecota

What is PECOTA? Here’s some info from Baseball Prospectus.

(PECOTA) Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player’s true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players’ stats changed over time.

Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system’s intricacies.

For reference here are the opening and current MLB World Series Futures odds from William Hill.

WillHillMLB

Here’s an even better reference and comparison for the 2016 PECOTA projections. Golden Nugget released season win totals. Here’s the first look from Covers.com.

NuggetMLBWins

See 2015 MLB PECOTA season win total projections here.

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Vegas Dave Wins $2.5 Million Payout on the World Series

Vegas Dave

Vegas Dave

Here are more details on Vegas Dave and the $2.5 Million he won on the Kansas City Royals winning the World Series.

Over the weekend I tweeted about my surprise that I was only just hearing about this now. News like this usually travels more quickly. Now there’s some publicly released information on the wager(s) and Vegas Dave.

Dave Oancea, aka “Vegas Dave,” one of the most aggressive and successful future sports bettors in the gambling world, and World Series champions the Kansas City Royals.

“Vegas Dave” won a historic $2.5M payout – the largest future bet in the history of sports betting when the Kansas City Royals won last night’s World Series.

He placed his bet in week one when the odds were 30 to 1 and bet it all the way down to 8-1 (the Royals haven’t won a World Series in 30 years). Declining several opportunities to cash out and make a guaranteed $750,000, Vegas Dave showed his faith in the team by letting the bet ride. See all of his tickets here

Vegas Dave’s passionate, no-nonsense approach, along with actual postings of his tickets on his website validate his credibility as one of the most successful sports bettors of his time. His winnings have even prompted The Westgate casino to change their policy on accepting his bets, which will change the way casinos do sports betting (no longer accepting such extreme odds or allowing repeat bets). He plans to give back to his community by donating turkeys and toys to underprivileged Las Vegas residents during the holiday season. 

I wasn’t familiar with Vegas Dave until this weekend so this section of the press release was useful.

About Dave Oancea

Dave Oancea, better known as “Vegas Dave” started his gambling career in Las Vegas 15 years ago after moving from Honolulu, Hawaii in pursuit of “making it big” in Sin City. After years of weathering major wins, devastating losses and even a two-month stint in Gamblers Anonymous, Dave eventually learned the discipline needed to stay successful as a professional gambler. Today, Dave is regarded as one of the elite sports handicappers of this era. He regularly wagers high stakes bets from $100,000-200,000 per week on sporting events. He also consults for approximately 2,500 people on their bets. With the financial freedom he’s achieved through his gambling career, Dave is truly living his dream in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas. For more information and to view Dave’s actual winnings, please visit itsvegasdave.com

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2015 MLB Season Win Totals From William Hill

MLB Season Win Totals

MLB Season Win Totals

Earlier today William Hill released their Major League Baseball season win totals. These are different from the openers from Westgate on Sunday that I wrote about on Vegas Chatter.

Any limit bets over or under of any of this totals will change the number. If you want to wager on the totals close to these numbers you should act quickly. If you need a point of reference for these totals here’s a link to the 2015 season win PECOTA projections that I posted last week.

Who ya got??

Arizona Diamondbacks 71.5
Atlanta Braves 74.5
Baltimore Orioles 83
Boston Red Sox 85.5
Chicago Cubs 83
Chicago White Sox 82
Cincinnati Reds 78
Clevelands Indians 83
Colorado Rockies 72
Detroit Tigers 84
Houston Astros 76.5
Kansas City Royals 80.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 94
Miami Marlins 81.5
Milwaukee Brewers 79.5
Minnesota Twins 72
New York Mets 81
New York Yankees 81.5
Oakland A’s 83
Philadelphia Phillies 69.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 84.5
San Diego Padres 83.5
San Francisco Giants 84.5
Seattle Mariners 87.5
Saint Louis Cardinals 89
Tampa Bay Rays 79.5
Texas Rangers 78
Toronto Blue Jays 83.5
Washington Nationals 94

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2015 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections

MLB Logo

MLB Pecota Projections

Baseball Prospectus released their 2015 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections last week. If you bet on baseball or play fantasy baseball you are probably familiar with the wealth of information available on Baseball Prospectus (BP).

If you’re not familiar with BP or PECOTA I’ll share some information after the standings. If you are familiar with BP and PECOTA you might find these projections helpful when looking at betting MLB season win totals and MLB futures. This is only a snippet of the information from Baseball Prospectus. There are definitely some surprises and projections I don’t understand right now and will have to dig deeper to understand. You can see the full projections on their site.

American League Standings Projections

American League Pecota Projections

American League Pecota Projections

National League Standings Projections

National League Pecota Projections

National League Pecota Projections

What is PECOTA? Here’s some info from Baseball Prospectus.

(PECOTA) Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player’s true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players’ stats changed over time.

Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system’s intricacies.

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Annual Appearance On Beating The Book Podcast

Podcast Feed Icon

Podcasts

This week was my fourth (!?) annual appearance on the Beating The Book podcast. This has been one of my favorite podcasts for years since host, Gill Alexander, and I share a love for betting on baseball (and other sports, but mostly baseball).

The Vegas Lifestyle Show has nothing to do with baseball or gambling. It’s a beginner’s guide for dudes when they visit Vegas. Here are the details on the show:

It’s the only non-sports betting episode of the calendar year, but for some, it’s the most anticipated.  If you’re planning a trip to Vegas, let this be your guide.  Host Gill Alexander, WagerTalk.com’s Marco D’Angelo, and man about town, Ace, take off their handicapping hats and are joined by Marc Meltzer of vegaschatter.com, part of the Conde Nast Traveler Network, to discuss the best Sportsbooks, Nightclubs, Steakhouses, and Strip Clubs in Sin City.  Plus, the best buffet and best value lunch are identified, as well.  The Super Bowl’s not for a while.  In the meantime, enjoy a man’s guide to Sin City, on Wednesday’s Beating The Book (January 21, 2015). 

Here are links to get the podcast:

Here’s a post with links to most of the gambling and Vegas podcasts I listen to. It’s updated as I find new podcasts to listen to.

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Current Odds To Win The World Series

Yankees World Series Trophies

Yankees World Series Trophies

The post MLB trade deadline odds to win the World Series from William Hill are below. Before the season I grabbed the Washington Nationals at 10/1. They’re still 10/1 and I’m still alive!

I’m always looking for a late season World Series bet with value. A couple of years ago I made a late season bet on the Phillies at 1000-1. It was one of the most fun bets I ever made. It doesn’t look like that kind of crazy long shot opportunity will be available this year.

Any teams stand out as a value? Here are the current mathematical odds from Baseball Prospectus on teams making the playoffs if you need.

Rotation Number/Team/Odds

5001 DODGERS – 4 / 1
5002 RED SOX – 150 / 1
5003 CARDINALS – 15/1
5004 ATHLETICS – 7/ 2
5005 TIGERS – 9/ 2
5006 BRAVES – 25 / 1
5007 NATIONALS – 10/1
5008 TB RAYS – 30/1
5009 GIANTS – 10 / 1
5010 PIRATES – 18 / 1
5011 REDS – 25 / 1
5012 YANKEES – 22 / 1
5013 ANGELS – 8 / 1
5014 RANGERS – 2500 / 1
5015 INDIANS – 60 / 1
5016 ORIOLES – 12 / 1
5017 PHILLIES – 1000 / 1
5018 D’BACKS – 1000 / 1
5019 BLUE JAYS – 25/ 1
5020 ROYALS – 40 / 1
5021 PADRES – 250 / 1
5022 ROCKIES – 2500/ 1
5023 BREWERS – 6/1
5024 WHITE SOX – 200/1
5025 MARINERS – 22/1
5026 CUBS – 2500/ 1
5027 METS – 250/ 1
5028 TWINS – 1000/ 1
5029 MARLINS – 60/ 1
5030 ASTROS – 1000 / 1

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Free $25 Bet When You Sign Up For Station Casinos Sports Betting Account

Sports Connection App From Station Casinos

Station Casinos App

I was bouncing around my Station Casinos App (Vegas Chatter review here, the app is great) and noticed a promotion for a free $25 sports bet when you sign up for a Sports Connection mobile sports betting account. I don’t love the lines and point spreads from Station Casinos (especially for baseball) but I do like how the app connects with the Boarding Pass players club. Sue me, I like that can get some extra players club points from my sports betting. Those “free” cups of Starbucks are nice.

Since you only have to deposit $50 in the account to get this bonus you’re looking at a pretty sweet deal. I wish they had this kind of incentive when I first signed up. If you’re not looking to make Station Casinos one of your regular sports betting outlets in Vegas then this sounds like a good way to grab a free swing at a college or pro football futures bet.

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63% Chance That Milwaukee Brewers Making Playoffs

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers have started the baseball season on fire. They were a sleeper pick by some of the so-called experts but those people were few and far between. I’ve been able to ride their coat tails for a few nice paying winning bets but I’m afraid that favorable prices for games may be gone. Now, according to the smart guys at Baseball Prospectus, the Milwaukee Brewers have odds of 63% to make the playoffs and are favored to win the NL Central.

NL Central Odds From Baseball Prospectus

NL Central Odds From Baseball Prospectus

This is a great resource so plan accordingly. The Washington Nationals are still 64% to make the playoffs despite their slow start. I’ll be riding the Brew Crew as long as it makes sense.

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MLB Win Totals From William Hill

MLB Logo

MLB

Here are the first run of season win totals from William Hill (2/17). I’ll give these a more in depth look over the weekend. My first thought is that I think I love the Tigers Under 89.5. Who do you like?

Diamondbacks – 80
Braves – 88
Orioles – 79.5
Red Sox – 88.5
Cubs – 69.5
White Sox – 75.5
Reds – 83
Indians – 81
Rockies – 75.5
Tigers – 89.5
Astros – 62.5
Royals – 81
Angels – 87.5
Dodgers – 93.5
Marlins – 68.5
Brewers – 78.5
Twins – 70
Mets – 73.5
Yankees – 87.5
Athletics – 88.5
Phillies – 76.5
Pirates – 85.5
Padres – 79
Giants – 85.5
Mariners – 79
Cardinals – 92.5
Rays – 88
Rangers – 87
Blue Jays – 79
Nationals – 87.5

 

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My Top 5 From AC2LV In 2013

Last week I looked at the 5 most viewed blogs on AC2LV this year. These may not be the most read (okay, one is) but they are my favorites in no particular order.

Tweet me with your favorites from 2013

Copyright © 2017 Marc Meltzer & EDGe Vegas