The Gambler's Fallacy

I talk gambling every day and haven’t heard anyone mention the Gambler’s Fallacy in a while. This weekend I heard it mentioned a couple of times and figured I might as well pass it on.

It’s easy to get caught up in the fever of gambling. Knowing what not to do or think is almost as important as knowing what to do or think. If you’re not aware of the Gambler’s Fallacy take a minute to learn it and keep it in mind next time you’re in a casino.

The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e.independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

Photo: Society3